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What is the 'Best' Progression for You? (Part Three of Three)
This is the third of three installments looking at betting progression strategies. To get the most of this article make sure you have read Part 1 and Part 2 in our series on progression betting.
So far we have looked at three different strategies designed to put more money on the table – and therefore win more money at the table. We looked at the very simple, yet very powerful up-a-unit progression. This progression adds one unit to the bet each time the number hits. We also looked at the press-and-pull (and the pull-and-press variant). The press-and-pull progression alternates between pressing the place bet when the number hits and pulling the profits when it hits, whereas the pull-and-press pulls one hit of profit first and then alternates between pressing and pulling.
All of these progressions minimize risk but also provide a powerful method to maximize your profits in an easy to manage way. There are times when you may want to be more aggressive. Such a situation could be when a thrower has surpassed twenty throws without a seven-out. By now you have a tidy sum in profits locked up in your chip rail. You are betting the casinos money. It is time to go for the gold.
What do you do? The press-and-pull progression is powerful, but another progression is even more powerful, though a little more difficult to manage. By increasing your bet by one half the current bet, you average more money on the table – and more profits when the numbers hit. The math required to calculate the increase can cause you to lose focus while shooting, so I do not recommend this if you are shooting. Use it on another careful shooter, or when you already have a large profit from the current shooter.
The tables that follow compare several progressions for a $10 player.
- Up-a-minimum-unit increases the bet by $6 each time the number hits.
- Up-a-betting-unit increases the bet by the starting bet size ($12) each time the number hits.
- Press-and-pull alternates pressing the bet with pulling the profits.
- Press-1/2-the-bet increases the bet by one-half the current bet each time the number hits.
Six and Eight | |||||||||||||
Unit Size | 10 | Up a min. unit | Up a betting unit | Press and Pull | Press 1/2 the Bet | ||||||||
Hit # | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Total | |
0 | 12 | -12 | 12 | -12 | 12 | -12 | 12 | -12 | |||||
1 | 18 | 8 | -4 | 24 | 2 | -10 | 24 | 4 | -8 | 18 | 8 | -4 | |
2 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 24 | 28 | 20 | 30 | 9 | 5 | |
3 | 30 | 22 | 33 | 48 | 30 | 36 | 48 | 8 | 28 | 48 | 17 | 22 | |
4 | 36 | 29 | 62 | 60 | 44 | 80 | 48 | 56 | 84 | 72 | 32 | 54 | |
5 | 42 | 36 | 98 | 72 | 58 | 138 | 96 | 16 | 100 | 108 | 48 | 102 | |
6 | 48 | 43 | 141 | 84 | 72 | 210 | 96 | 112 | 212 | 162 | 72 | 174 | |
7 | 54 | 50 | 191 | 96 | 86 | 296 | 192 | 32 | 244 | 246 | 105 | 279 | |
8 | 60 | 57 | 248 | 108 | 100 | 396 | 192 | 224 | 468 | 372 | 161 | 440 | |
9 | 66 | 64 | 312 | 120 | 114 | 510 | 384 | 64 | 532 | 558 | 248 | 688 | |
10 | 72 | 71 | 383 | 132 | 128 | 638 | 384 | 448 | 980 | 840 | 369 | 1057 | |
11 | 78 | 78 | 461 | 144 | 142 | 780 | 768 | 128 | 1108 | 1260 | 560 | 1617 | |
12 | 84 | 85 | 546 | 156 | 156 | 936 | 768 | 896 | 2004 | 1890 | 840 | 2457 |
Press Moves For Craps
As you can see from the charts, pressing half your bet will win you the most money if you hit a number more than eight times. The more times beyond this that you hit a number the more quickly this method pays off compared to the others. But, also notice that at seven or fewer hits, the up-a-betting-unit out performs it. That is one reason why you may want to save the press-a-half-bet strategy until you are well into a roll and have hit numbers many times. That is where the power of this strategy pays off.
I would like to look at one final progression – actually a progression-regression. The 6/8 Progression-regression has been around for a long time. People who become proficient at the 3V set – the set that has 6’s and 8’s all the way around – will tend to hit more 6’s and 8’s than normal. To capitalize on this ability, the 6/8 progression-regression strategy was developed.
In that betting scheme, the 6 and 8 are both placed for the player’s betting unit. After one hit of either the 6 or 8, both the 6 and 8 are increased to 1.5 times the original bet. The next time a 6 or 8 hits, collect the profit. On the third hit of a 6 or 8, both the 6 and 8 are increased to 2.5 times the original bet. The fourth time a 6 or 8 hits, collect the profit. On the fifth hit, the 6 and 8 are increased to 4 times the original bet.
The sixth time the 6 or 8 hits completes the progression. You collect the profits and regress the 6 and 8 back to the original amount. Once you have regressed your bets, you have won a tidy sum. You then start the progression all over again.
A more aggressive version of the 6/8 progression-regression was also developed. You start with the second level of 1.5 times your betting unit and complete the series in five hits rather than six, collecting a bit more in the process.
Here are the tables for comparison:
Six and Eight | ||||||||||||||
Unit Size | 10 | Up a min. unit | 6/8 Progress/Regress (Std) | 6/8 Prog/Regr (Aggressive) | ||||||||||
Hit # | Bet | Win | Total | Bet | Win | Give | Coll. | Total | Bet | Win | Give | Coll. | Total | |
0 | 12 | -12 | 12 | 24 | -24 | 18 | 36 | -36 | ||||||
1 | 12 | 8 | -4 | 18 | 14 | 2 | -22 | 30 | 21 | 3 | -39 | |||
2 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 21 | 21 | -1 | 30 | 35 | 35 | -4 | |||
3 | 24 | 22 | 33 | 30 | 21 | 3 | -4 | 48 | 35 | 1 | -5 | |||
4 | 30 | 29 | 62 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 31 | 48 | 56 | 56 | 51 | |||
5 | 36 | 36 | 98 | 48 | 35 | 1 | 30 | 18 | 56 | 116 | 167 | |||
6 | 42 | 43 | 141 | 12 | 56 | 128 | 158 | 30 | 21 | 3 | 164 | |||
7 | 48 | 50 | 191 | 18 | 14 | 2 | 160 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 199 | |||
8 | 54 | 57 | 248 | 18 | 21 | 21 | 181 | 48 | 35 | 1 | 198 | |||
9 | 60 | 64 | 312 | 30 | 21 | 3 | 178 | 48 | 56 | 56 | 254 | |||
10 | 66 | 71 | 383 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 213 | 18 | 56 | 116 | 370 | |||
11 | 72 | 78 | 461 | 48 | 35 | 1 | 212 | 30 | 21 | 3 | 367 | |||
12 | 78 | 85 | 546 | 12 | 56 | 128 | 340 | 30 | 35 | 35 | 402 |
Notice that with the 6/8 progression-regression you are actually losing money until the fifth hit. However, since a hit on the 6 or 8 counts, you are likely to get more hits than on any one number as in the up-a-unit strategy. With the 6/8 strategy you are investing a lot of your up front wins to finance a big win a little later on. It also requires only six total hits of the 6 and 8 for the big win.
We have reviewed the simple and powerful up-a-unit, the slightly more powerful press-and-pull, the still more powerful press-1/2-bet, and 6/8 progression-regression strategies. The first two strategies are good in virtually all situations. The press-1/2-bet strategy is best used after having already collected on several hits. The 6/8 strategy is designed to give you a rush when you complete it.
You can choose whatever strategy you like when betting your money at the craps tables. I, however, prefer the less exciting but much steadier up-a-unit strategy when risking my hard-earned wagering capital.
Well, that is all for this time. But remember, if you lend someone $20 and never see that person again, it was probably worth it.
Stickman
The debates have been raging lately over the efficacy of regressions versus progressions versus flat betting. Should you bets start high, drop back down, then follow some sort of press moves to table max? Should you press from the first hit and forget about regressions? Or should your bets simply stay constant?
Every legitimate gaming expert out there will tell you that betting strategies, no matter how complex or sophisticated, do not affect the house advantage or edge. In fact, if you had a chance to peek at the casino’s ledgers over an extended stretch of time you would find table holds close enough to the gross amounts wagered times the edge on the game to make you take notice. If, for example, over the course of the year players place a total of $12 million in action on the six and eight place bets, the hold on this action will be no more than a wisp away from $181,200 – or 1.51% of the total amount wagered. It makes no difference how those wagers were pressed or regressed, or how long the bets stayed up.
Press Moves In Craps
Math experts understand this inherently. But they’re looking at the total of all wagers by all gamblers for a long period of time. Experienced players, on the other hand, know from experience that often what happens over the long run has little to do with what occurs on the table in any given session. They know that betting systems do affect short-term performance. Some believe the secret of success is locking up a small win, and then playing with “the house’s money.” Others believe that long streaks on either the right side or wrong side are rare, so they play Fibos, Martingales, or some other progression strategy named after a dead European math guy. Then there are the “tortoises,” those slow but steady flat bettors who never press or regress.
So who is right? The math guy or the veteran player? Truth is, they’re both right. On the one hand, betting strategies do matter. On the other hand, they don’t. Why? Because not only does every wager have a built-in edge for the house, there is also an inherent volatility that can swing either way – to the house’s advantage or the player’s. Over the long run, the house edge is strong enough to overcome the volatility and balance everything out. But in the short run, volatility wins the day.
Craps Press Moves Video
How can you manage volatility to your advantage? Again, it depends on your betting strategy. On any selected wager, flat betting minimizes the player’s exposure to volatility. Progressions raise it. Regressions may reduce it somewhat. Managing volatility by flat betting or taking a regression can help you lose less – and at a slower pace. On the other hand, progressive bettors who “get lucky” will win much more for equivalent amounts at risk. But when their luck runs out – and it always does – they lose large, and they lose it fast.